By International Socialist League
In a Middle East already severely devastated by the Palestinian genocide and the Zionist State of Israel’s attack on Lebanon, Bashar al-Assad’s draconian dictatorship fell in Syria a few days ago and was replaced in power by an Islamist sector in command of a heterogeneous rebel coalition. A new era full of uncertainties has begun in the country and the region.
A transcendental development
For the Syrian people and other Arab peoples of the region, this change marks a very significant development. It ends 54 years of dictatorial rule by the Assad clan through the Baath party: 24 years under the recently deposed Bashar and the 30 previous years under his father Hafez. The regime, of a populist Arab nationalist nature, turned increasingly to the right, negotiated with different imperialisms, and, particularly in recent decades, never supported the Palestinian resistance to Zionist settler colonialism and genocide in any meaningful way. Instead, it practically confined itself to paying lip service to the Palestinian cause and using it for internal oppression. That is one of the reasons why many Palestinians, including Hamas, welcomed the fall of al-Assad.
It must be noted that the rule of the Baath Party in Syria started in the mid-1960s as a somewhat revolutionary, anti-imperialist project under leaders like Saleh Jaded. However, owing to the lack of a Marxist leadership, ideological confusions, zigzags and intraparty disputes, it ended up as a very corrupt crony capitalism, requiring unprecedented and endless state repression of the vast majority of the Syrian population. The degeneration of the regime accelerated after the 1990s with the adoption of pro-market, neoliberal economic policies, resulting in the loss of the popular support it once enjoyed. The desertions in the Syrian Arab Army and the rebel victory in just ten days confirm that the regime was in decay and had no social support. No democratic way forward could be made with the corrupt tyranny serving the interests of the Assad family and its cronies in power. That is why, after the fall of the regime, crowds took to the streets to celebrate, both in Syria and in several other countries. Currently, of Syria’s total population of 24 million, 5 million refugees, who fled the civil war and the repression of 2011, are living abroad and have now begun to return.
Russia and Iran weakened
For both countries, which have also been under dictatorial regimes for decades, the fall of al-Assad implies a significant weakening of their influence in the region. Both the Putin government and that of the Iranian mullahs were the fundamental political and military support of the Assad regime for years. The secret services of Russia, an emerging imperialism busy with its invasion and war against Ukraine, did not foresee the rebel offensive in Syria. The same can be said of a much-weakened Hezbollah and, above all, of Iran’s theocratic dictatorship, which, instead of leading the anti-Zionist “axis of resistance” like it had promised, in practice betrayed the Palestinian struggle. In any case, both Iran and its proxy groups, as well as Russia, were in no position to support a hollowed-out regime that crumbled like a house of cards with just a slight push. In turn, Israel took advantage of the power vacuum generated these days to send troops into the demilitarized zone between the Golan Heights—which it has illegally occupied since 1967—and Syria.
The diverse rebel alliance
It is diverse, encompassing four sectors, at times in conflict with each other:
• Levant Liberation Committee (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS): A Sunni Islamist group that, in recent years, has tried to portray itself as a mainstream, “moderate.” Its political wing is the Syrian Salvation Government, and its main leader is al-Chara (alias al-Jolani).
• Syrian National Army (SNA): Supported by Turkey, it was joined by the National Liberation Front and seeks to create a buffer zone on the Turkish border to prevent the advance of the Kurdish struggle.
• Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF): Kurdish militias led by the People’s Protection Units (YPG). With support from the US, they control the Rojava region and suffer attacks from the SNA.
• Free Men of Syria (Ahrar al-Sham): Emerged in 2011 from the merger of several ultra-Islamist groups, influenced by the Afghan Taliban.
ISIS (Islamic State, Daesh) is not part of this alliance because it is a rival of HTS, but it still exists and could regain its presence in the current crisis.
No to external interference
In 2011, as part of the Arab Spring, there was a popular rebellion against the Assad dictatorship in Syria. Al-Assad harshly repressed it, igniting a civil war that killed 600,000—including more than 100,000 civilians—and displaced ten million, half internally and half abroad. Among the rebel political and religious sectors—which were initially more independent—the influence of the US and Turkey has grown, and they will seek to maintain or expand it. Also, the support of other reactionary states, such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan and the UAE, for various factions cannot be ignored. Such is the complexity of the situation that these imperialist powers can be in alliance in one part of the country while confronting each other in another. These days, the HTS is negotiating with UN envoy Geir Pedersen, former Assadist Prime Minister al-Jalali and representatives of other countries regarding the Resolution 2254 of the United Nations Security Council, which proposes an 18-month “civil transition”, a new constitution and fresh elections. However, the possibility of bloody infighting among the rebel groups during the process cannot be ruled out.
What is the way out?
The joy expressed by large sectors of the Syrian people at the dictator’s fall cannot hide the risks that exist. As we mentioned, the situation is influenced by imperialist forces, the expansionist Turkish and Islamist sects, including HTS, whose strategy is a theocratic state that does not guarantee the long-postponed democratic, economic and social rights. A truly democratic solution should include the convening of a free and sovereign Constituent Assembly, in which returning refugees could also participate, in order to reorganize the country along a path of national and social liberation, in solidarity with the Palestinian cause, and in a secular state for the peaceful coexistence among peoples and religions. The ISL is committed to developing a revolutionary, anti-imperialist and anti-capitalist alternative that fights for a socialist Syria within the framework of a socialist federation of the Middle East. We emphasize that this is only possible through the revolutionary organization of the toiling masses and oppressed people of Syria, in alliance with the oppressed and exploited of the Middle East and beyond.
- Down with all kinds of imperialist meddling in Syria!
- Down with theocracy and religious fundamentalism!
- No illusions in the proxy forces and facilitators of imperialism!
- Democratic aspirations of the Syrian masses must be respected!
- Solidarity and support for the Syrian people for a democratic, secular and socialist Syria!
ISL Coordination
December 12, 2024
